The impact of Celestia's TIA unlocking and the over-the-counter trading behind it
- Title: "TIA - an OTC story" Author: Taran Sabharwal, founder of the cryptocurrency over-the-counter trading platform STIX Compiled by: Zombiet
Overview of Net New Supply as of October 31, 2024
We use on chain data (via Celerium API) to accurately determine how unlocking dynamics may shape TIA's price trend in November. The above table shows the results, and we have concluded that a total of $92.3 million TIAs will enter circulation after unlocking, which will become the upper limit of overall spot selling pressure.
The $TIA has a 21 day staking period, and those who wish to unlock the trading TIA on October 31st have already released the staking. The total number of unsecured tokens, tokens in the 21 day staking queue, and approximately 24.1 million tokens that have not been counted is equal to 92.3 million TIAs.
This is equivalent to a maximum selling pressure of approximately $460 million. Equally interesting is that this accounts for less than 50% of the total cliff unlocking volume, which means the selling pressure is only half of what people expected.
Another interesting data is that the ratio of the (actual) increase in circulation supply to the current circulation supply is 41.8%.
The first wave of unlocked tokens was sold to OTC (over-the-counter) buyers who hedged on perpetual contracts, resulting in a surge in open interest over the past few months. We expect these large short positions to continue closing, partially offsetting the pressure of spot selling. This capital reset may be a bullish signal for spot buyers.
The assumption in our analysis is that buyers in OTC rounds have 11 million TIA cliff unlocks, which are included in non collateralized buckets (these tokens come from vault wallets and have not been marked on the browser). We have drawn a total of 292 attributed wallets, some of which were not fully drawn. We have included this gap in the non pledged buckets.
History of $TIA OTC on STIX
Undoubtedly, Celestia is one of the most actively traded assets off the exchange during this cycle, mainly because in the early stages of the cycle, it provides an early bullish opportunity for buyers who crave directional trading. Sellers were also incentivized by a large amount of unrealized profits and losses, and did not anticipate the upcoming bull market (Q3 2023).
In the first quarter of 2024, the bull market has matured and the $TIA has risen above $20. At this time, there is very little off exchange trading activity because sellers are unwilling to accept larger discounts (over 40%), and buyers do not want to bid above the upper limit of $8.5. We hardly saw any activity because the seller "feels" wealthy and wants to maintain risk exposure, even if there is an opportunity to achieve investment returns of 100 to 800 times.
When $TIA fell below $5, the situation changed, and this was also the time when the Celestia Foundation began raising $100 million through OTC at a price of $3. The buyer's attribution criteria are the same as those for private investors - unlocking 33% on October 31st (less than 2 months from the round) and linear unlocking for 12 months.
In the third and fourth quarters of 2024, $TIA's over-the-counter trading activity was very active, and sellers unloaded multiple positions. We traded a large quantity of tokens for the first wave of unlocking and the entire unlocking process. As for STIX, the total transaction volume of $TIA since July is approximately $60 million, which may indicate that the actual transaction volume through various liquidity channels is over $80 million (assuming STIX holds 75% of the OTC market share).
summary
Short positions will continue to close until unlocked, and funding rates may be reset to 0 or positive. Those who missed the deadline for releasing their pledge on October 9th may have already released their pledge in October, leading to a further increase in spot supply in November (ready to be sold). In any case, the supply shock is enormous and one of the most widely spread unlocking events of this cycle, coupled with suppressed off exchange trading discounts, may create significant market volatility for the coin.
Related articles: "Even without unlocking, you can still make a profit! Celestia seed round investors can recoup their investment every 3.5 days by staking rewards" "Celestia just announced the completion of a $100 million financing, and institutions are about to unlock it
(责任编辑:理财)
-
台灣最具聲量的 Web3 資訊整合:《Crypto Read》區塊鏈聯合電子報正式上線
彼时中国所有的电子商务玩的都是一个概念“我不挣钱,先冲订单,占领市场”。...[详细]
-
10月31日嘉实添惠一年持有期混合C净值增长0.06%,今年来累计上涨2.77%
另外,我们经常会在网上看到成功人士九种独特思维方式、成功者的12个逆向思维、成功人士一辈子都在用的第一原理思维等,还有著书立说的金字塔思维、思维导图、六顶思考帽等,这些让我等屌丝眼花缭乱,迷了眼。...[详细]
-
在上升更大格局后,蔡文胜将目标定位在做世界的美图。...[详细]
-
10月31日华安逆向策略混合C净值下跌0.57%,近1个月累计下跌4.23%
因为打球的时候,感觉鞋后跟特别的硬。...[详细]
-
”柳传志也说:“做正确的事,比把事做正确更重要。...[详细]
-
当时即使在华为内部,想拿到一部Mate7至少得是个17级的高级工程师吧。...[详细]
-
”可是当他们的方法无效时,他们就会失去魅力。...[详细]
-
再好的公司如果投入时机不对,买在最高点,或者卖在最低点,最后都只能是失败的投资。...[详细]
-
在节目策划阶段我曾问Joe:你最与众不同的特质是什么?他的原话里,除了提到很强的战略思维能力、总是让他能够获胜的竞争力和成就他人之外,还有一点,自信。...[详细]
-
我想要将产品卖给在意质量并且愿意为此付费的客户。...[详细]